Over the past decade, numerous discussions have been conducted on the properties of BTC bitcoin that would allow it to serve as a safe haven, as well as on the possible influence of geopolitical and macroeconomic events, particularly those that cause a sense of uncertainty. The recent events the world has witnessed between the United States and Iran have provided the empirical evidence necessary in narrating BTC's reaction to geopolitical circumstances, so that the theory could pass the practical test.
Coin Metrics, a cryptographic market analysis company, examined three important events related to the military tension between the United States and Iran, publishing the results in its latest report:
- January 3: the US drone strike in Iran kills Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani. The news contains few details that will be published three hours later.
At this point, oil and gold have already reacted positively, while BTC has been delayed for about three hours. Hence, the answer cannot be used as proof of its safe haven properties, because other explanations are possible:
- market participants offered BTC's price in the face of greater geopolitical uncertainty, but with a delay because the market is inefficient and participants slowed down in knowing and acting on information;
- there is no strong relationship between BTC and geopolitical events and for several hours after the event, the price of bitcoin has decreased or remained stable, which is incompatible with the slow explanation of the dissemination of information;
- intraday price changes without any apparent news catalyst, but generally driven by forced liquidations on term products.
- January 7: Iran launches a missile attack against US military bases in Iraq; military tensions increase.
An examination of the Iranian response illustrates how quickly market efficiency can improve, says Coin Metrics. The explanations for BTC's response are at present less numerous, with the evidence suggesting a connection between BTC and the escalation of military tensions and which serve as validation of the safe haven theory:
- Bitcoin has moved along with oil and gold without any noticeable delay;
- prices increased in the hours following the event with a steep but gradual slope (not the strong movement of prices associated with forced liquidations on future positions).
- January 8: the comments of the President of the United States Donald Trump are interpreted as a cessation of hostilities and a reduction of tensions.
This provides "perhaps the strongest evidence in bitcoin history" of a direct connection between bitcoin and geopolitical events. "While the previous two events in our study measured bitcoin's response in the order of hours, its response to this event can be measured in the order of minutes," concludes the report.
As Coin Metrics argues, "we have witnessed perhaps the strongest validation of the bitcoin safe haven theory in its 11-year history, and this watershed moment marks an important milestone in maturing bitcoins as a legitimate asset class."
